The recent Bitcoin price increase came with a huge Bang. Within a very short time by Bitcoin (BTC) broke the mark of $ 10,000 and jumped even in the short term, over 11,000 USD. Thus, the current characters are on Bullrun. Which is why we must not only be pleased of the events, but even knowing that we are only at the beginning of a longer upward movement, you will learn in this article.
Contents
Bitcoin breaks through a important Resistance
As the Basis of our article is a current Video of the popular YouTube Channels DataDash is used. Behind Nicholas Merten, the announced in this post four good reasons is why the Bitcoin Bullrun is only the beginning.
Let’s first take a look at the following weekly Chart. From this it is apparent that Bitcoin has only managed for the first Time since the all-time high in December 2017, the reasons for this trend line to break above.
This latest breakthrough is a massive positive Momentum for BTC. But in addition to the bullish prospects that the so-called “weekly-timeframe” is us in the above graphic, the view on the monthly perspective as well.
Here, Merten meets an interesting statement. He argues that Bitcoin cycles in 4 years (and thus Halving-cycles) move, but rather the so-called “expanding cycles” result. What Merten exactly says and how he justifies this statement, let’s look at now.
Bitcoin Bullrun: BTC is located in the Expanding Cycle
We look at the following Chart, which comes directly from the above-linked Video:
This Chart shows the so-called Expanding, i.e., ascending, Cycles. We hold, first, that it is a logarithmic scale. If we see the history of Bitcoins through the play, we see that the first of these emerging cycles began in the year 2010.
According to the above graph of the second Cycle in October 2011, began and lasted until November 2013. The third cycle ended, again, in December 2017, with the provisional all-time high of $ 20,000.
When you look at the Chart and the areas of the cycles closer, sees that these last longer and longer. While the first Phase had a duration of 335 days, the second cycle already 731 days and the third in 1065 days. Accordingly, the Name of the ‘expanding cycle’arises.
If we follow this logic, we are currently in the fourth cycle. This cycle began at the low point of the last bear market (Dec. 2019), and would accordingly end in November 2022. Merten comes at a huge price target of$100,000.
If we look at the logarithmic Chart, we see Resistance at approx. of$100,000.
Stock-to-Flow Chart also plays a role
Also, the well-known Stock to the Flow Chart of PlanB plays in the Argumentation of Merten a role. As Merten said that the current price movements are also brought in connection with the shortage of supply due to the Halving.
In addition, we see in this model a similar prediction with a Bitcoin exchange rate of 100.00$ for the years 2021 – 2024. At this point, we don’t want to dwell on the S2F model.
The model itself has been criticised often in the past. This is due to the complete neglect of the demand, for example. Other reasons for the lack of a limiting (infinite price movement for long time axes), as well as the lack of direct connection between Halving and price movement.
Bitcoin in firm hands: HODL till the end?
We come now to the last point of this article: The strong mentality of the Bitcoin HODLer. Again and again, we can observe that a majority of investors buy BTC and then stops. It is a question of long-term Investments.
HODLer of short-term price movements scare them. This fact is important because it reduces the supply and the actually available amount of BTC dramatically. To visualize this, we look at the so-called HODL Waves.
In our case, we look at only the 1-Year HODL Wave. This means that we will consider, how many BTC have already been for more than a year, no longer moving.
HODL Waves confirm Bitcoin Bullrun: demand meets low supply
The graph shows that 62 percent (!) of all the in circulation Bitcoin have not moved since more than a year. As I have already mentioned in the above section, this has a massive impact on the offer. It is particularly ’beautiful‘ that retail investors play a major role, as they buy BTC in the long term. In combination with the demand of institutional investors, an explosive mixture, which can drive the Bitcoin price into further heights as a result of this.
We see that more and more and more institutional investors, such as Grayscale or hedge Fund to devote himself to the subject of Bitcoin. Slowly we come to a point at which the liquidity and the supply of BTC is too low to cover any demand.
So we are at the end of the article. We can say that the four mentioned reasons are more than weighty. They are strong indicators for a continuation of the Bitcoin Bullruns. The explosive combination of a shortage of supply, increased demand and a positive Momentum from the chart perspective, give Bitcoin wings.
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