The crisis due to the spread of coronavirus to draw a picture of contraction for the 2020. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that there will be a setback of at least 3%. The world is submerged in an unprecedented situation that combines multiple aspects of economic, political, or health, of one form or another, are interconnected among themselves and that, in theory, could trigger a global economic recession in 2020. On the one hand, there is the pandemic coronavirus and quarantines widespread that are leaving economies semiparalizadas. On the other, the raw materials have been recorded lows rarely seen in the markets due to lower demand, which has led to “collateral damage” as the closure of companies, decreased employment, restrictions, aerial, signs between governments and up to the cancellation of sporting events or cultural events. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) already provides a historic global economic recession and predicts that the stumbling global will be 3%, with regions such as Europe, Latin america or the united States falling to 7.5%, 5,2% and 5,9%, respectively. The International Monetary Fund expects a fall of 6.1% between the major economies of the world by 2020. Source: IMF. If the global economy falls significantly as expected to, there arise the questions how would this situation to bitcoin? what would drive his price up or it would affect negatively? does it remain the same? To try to understand this panorama, Breaking News consulted a variety of specialists that describe how you could react the main criptomoneda before his first major global crisis after its creation in 2009. For the analyst of markets and trader venezuelan, Alberto Cardenas, it is one of the most important debates around bitcoin, as the financial crisis is just beginning, but it is estimated to lengthen by several months. The operator considers that the first criptomoneda is facing a test of fire. However, he does not believe that its price to skyrocket in the midst of a global economic recession.
I do not see the bitcoin price shot, or climbing to, not what I see. It would not be logical because it would not have a correlation with the fact economic and, at the end of the day, bitcoin should not be without this correlation with the economic reality of the planet. If that happens, it would give a feeling of manipulation and I think it leads to a lack of credibility, if that is the result. Alberto Cardenas, market analyst and trader.
The trader explained that bitcoin is showing resilience very good at this time, but you have to wait to see how it reacts when the worst period of the recession, that is to say, when the number of people without jobs increases, when the money in the street is decreasing or when the consumption down with more force. “My opinion is that it will drop in price like the rest of the assets, but you probably have a better performance than other assets. In addition, take into consideration that when you have an economic recovery, bitcoin can shine again”, added the specialist, who recalled that the criptomoneda has properties mixed as it can be considered as digital money, as a raw material “because it is mine,” or be considered as an asset of receipt of value.
Bitcoin and the global economy
After 11 years since its creation, has spoken about bitcoin in virtually all of the world. Each country, in a greater or lesser extent, has referred to the criptomoneda or to its political implications, economic or social. For many, bitcoin is considered as a global phenomenon and it is for this reason that it is not divorced from the reality facing the world today. At least so believes the trader mexican @cryptohispano01 who explained that, unlike what was happening in the early years of development of bitcoin, the criptomoneda is not the same of its inception due to which now displays a dose of regulation and institutional capital.
Bitcoin is not the same as before, it is now an asset that is anchored by institutional money and parts more regulated. This has led to is more linked to the global economy. It is true that it is a real asset and not debt as the money is fiat, however, to be listed on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and other regulated markets, has become a commodity, so the impact of a global economy will also be reflected in the price of bitcoin. @cryptohispano01, trader.
The thesis of @cryptohispano01 is that if the world economy does poorly, the BTC will also go wrong. To be consulted about the origins of bitcoin, which was born after the 2008 financial crisis to face a possible global economic recession in the future, the operator noted that at the beginning bitcoin was that way, but now the miners have become institutional money, as well as the big investors that were previously ordinary. In the year of the third halving of bitcoin, the criptomoneda has faced its first major financial crisis since it was created in 2009. Source: MichaelWuensch/pixabay.com A different point of view is that of the economist and bitcoiner venezuelan Daniel Arráez, who highlighted Breaking News that bitcoin does not follow the established patterns in the world today and therefore would not be affected by what may happen with the potential global economic recession. Arráez is convinced that this type of situations will favour those who poseean bitcoin, before the benefit of those who have the dollars or other asset to be safeguarded in the face of what happens. “I am of the current that thinks that bitcoin is indifferent to the scenarios of crisis or booms world. Remember that bitcoin emerged from the last financial crisis as an alternative to the money of the central banks, bailouts to the banks and not the people,” said the economist. In connection with her personal experience as a bitcoiner, he stressed that they feel more confident knowing that you have bitcoin as a guard, instead of dollars or any other asset.
Bitcoin with its properties of scarcity and temporality is designed with the purpose of maintaining the property that stores value. When I met bitcoin, the price was between three and seven dollars. Seven and a half years after the time the anda reaffirming as a store of value. Daniel Arráez, economist.
Capital to invest in bitcoin
After the comedown of the 12 of march, in the that bitcoin lost more than 40% of your quote, the criptomoneda has recovered ground. However, according to experts, the global economic recession is just taking its first steps, so that the darker part of the tunnel has not yet appeared. To be an asset that is due to supply and demand, bitcoin is subject to price variations as any other asset. While more people buy it, its price tends to rise, as more people sell it, its price tends to go down. To participate in this cycle requires money, something that could be in short supply, according to the trader Spanish @inmortalcrypto. The operator of cryptocurrencies supports the theory that if the economy is good, bitcoin will go well, but in a cul-de-sac, as the global economic recession, then bitcoin would not have a direct benefit.
If there is a good economy, people can invest in assets such as bitcoin. If a family goes well, you can take another type of decisions instead of counting only the money to pay the bills. If the economy is going well, you don’t have to do those calculations, you will have plenty of money at the end of the month and you can raise other things in which to invest. @inmortalcrypto, trader.
@inmortalcrypto snuggles to the thesis that for there to be an upward trend in bitcoin, you have to have a purchasing power level high. For the Spanish a prolonged crisis it would be very difficult for bitcoin, since it reduces the chances of that in action a bullish trend.
If I have to choose between two scenarios for bitcoin to work well, I prefer one in which the economic situation is good because if people have a surplus, this is when you can invest it in bitcoin. If there is buying pressure, if there is a demand, it is impossible that the price goes up. In a global economic recession the majority of people will not want to buy bitcoin, simply are going to want to pay the bills. @inmortalcrypto, trader.
Although we wouldn’t have several months to overcome the global economic recession that is looming, bitcoin shows a quote of around $ 8,700 per unit, according to the index of markets Breaking News. A higher price than it was when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic by coronavirus. In 2020 bitcoin has flirted several times with the barrier of us $ 10,000. On the 19th of February reached its highest quote so far this year with a price of 10.320 dollars per unit. Source: Coingecko. As occurred in the past, when bitcoin experienced a case falls, the criptomoneda knew how to recover from difficult times. In the event of submission of a new episode of this type, there is nothing to indicate that you may not be able to overcome it and demonstrate that it would be prepared to contain dark scenarios such as those envisaged by Satoshi Nakamoto.