Because of our lack of Knowledge about the future, we look to the past to gain insights about what lies in front of us. Bitcoin investors are no exception to this rule and often observe historical Trends to predict what’s next for the cryptocurrency.
Zack Voell, market analyst at CoinDesk, has made this clear with the below Tweet.
On the basis of the data of trading view Voell noted that Bitcoins dominance – the percentage of the crypto-currency market consisting of BTC, it was directly after the halving in 2016, “atomized”. The metric fell in the five days following the halving of 98% to 94% and this means that the total value of the Altcoins to BTC tripled.
There is no guarantee that this will happen again. The Analyst maintains, however, that he can achieve in the face of the “ALT/BTC pairs to new lows”, a similar Trend in the course of this upcoming halving expected.
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This relative bear market in BTC has been taken up by Chris Burniske, Partner at Placeholder Capital. Wrote at the end of April that he sees bitcoin’s dominance to decline.
However, the Trend that was observed after the last halving, and can not prevail this time, maybe.
Only Bitcoin is the king
Things can change in the blink of an eye, but only a few days before the halving, Bitcoin is the only Cryptocurrency on the market.
As a well-known Trader commented, there was last week a “significant decoupling between Bitcoin and Altcoins”. This relative Outperformance, he explained, was a sign that Fiat “flows, and the participants pull out Altcoins for BTC “off the road”.
It is unlikely that this Trend will change below-average Altcoin Performance, in particular, as prominent investors such as Paul Tudor Jones Bitcoin and only BTC shillen, while the On-Chain-metrics of other Coins are enormously decreased.
Investors are aware of the Altcoin weakness aware
Then, in 2016, the question of the crypto-room, much more like the Wild West: millions have been collected for any of the ICOs, it was Bitconnect, and much more. In short, investors about the risks of Altcoins is significantly less enlightened than it is today.
On the way to halving in a few days, the investors of the fundamental strength of the Bitcoin over Altcoins are aware of what it is more likely power, that BTC will have the majority of the profits.
The head of the technical analysis of the cryptographic-research firm Blockfyre is just that, and explains that He believes that any volatility in Bitcoin, Altcoins, during, and after the halving is going to destroy.
The Analyst believes that Altcoins are always a “game of trip to Jerusalem”, because it can rise for reasons that have nothing to do with any of the basics to:
“The reason why the Old Pumps are not convincing, is the fact that they followed the same Patterns. IEO’s, interoperability, Privacy-Coins move together. It is coordinated, as it was in the last 3 years of the case, rather than having all the ships rise together.“
The Blockfyre Analyst more:
“A potentially very painful Situation that develops when the domination breaks out to the next resistance. Each 1% increase of BTC.D corresponds approximately to a decrease of 6-12% compared to the BTC pairings for Altcoins. Hard to imagine that no matter what don’t do BTC, it will be very painful for Alts.“