A majority of the Bitcoin-price-predictions for 2020 and beyond depends on the impact of the Halving event, which will take place in may. Some believe that it will have no effect, while others have great hope for it.
If historical price trends into account, should Bitcoin reach some time after the event to a new high of 400,000 $.
After the first halving in November 2012, the Bitcoin rose in price from a low of 2.01 $ at the peak of 270,94 $ – an increase of 13,000%. In the second half in July 2016 Bitcoin rose from a low state at the time of 164,01 $ to a peak of 20.074 $ – an increase of 12,000%.
If Bitcoin develops after halving in may, similar, investors can write expect against this Background, that the price of the Coins reached up to 400,000 $, such as @rektcapital on Twitter. This sounds tremendous, however, were the increases of 13.000 and 12.000% also.
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What’s happened before?
The percentage growth for Bitcoins, the first and the second half is so similar that the Argument that the third is a semi-follow-in-formation seems to have a certain reason. And a closer look at the Similarities in the technical analysis of the price after the two previous events gives it even more weight.
In a Medium Post of RA Capital explains, Bitcoin is after the peak, which was reached by the first halving, in the Bärenmart of 2013 occurred. The Coin lost 80 percent of its value.
There is a significant decline, and was quite faster, because of the bear market lasted for 87 days.
In a similar way, Bitcoin has lost after the climax before the second halving, again, more than 80 percent of their value. However, this bear market was much more intense, since it took almost a year.
Of course, there could be a lot of Consistency between the previous two and a half coats, which have been incorporated into the narrative that the third halving of Bitcoin will be something Similar.
However, there are also some pretty significant differences, especially in Timing. The length of the previous bear markets, for example, however, it took 513 days to Bitcoin came after the first halving on the top, and 1068 days after the second halving, i.e. more than Double.
Will follow the third Bitcoin halving the Trend?
But even if half is removed there about five months, can we draw some Similarities and Parallels to the past.
Bitcoins low, followed by the increase to $ 20,000, was in mid-December 3.152 dollars. This means that the low point was reached in 519 days before the next halving of Bitcoin is remarkably similar to the second, which peaked at 544 days, a record low.
More still, the current price increase since the ground is at the time of writing 340 percent. For the second halving, the Bitcoin grew by 383 per cent, and reached its peak before the halving.
These Trends are encouraging and fit to the Thesis that Bitcoin should recover to a certain level, based on a 50 per cent reduction of the newly issued Coins.
However, it is an asset that has not been look by analysts yet really, and may well adopt a whole new way. A study also comes to the conclusion that the Halving will take no great influence on the Bitcoin price.