In a week’s time, the bitcoinkoers by more than 15 per cent. At this time, bitcoin is just a little less than 7.700 u.s. dollars (7.090 euro as well. It looks to be all a lot more positive for the share price. With the bitcoin block halving on the horizon, which is about a two-week period. What will have an impact on the price in the next few weeks?
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What is the bitcoin block halving?
During the bitcoin block halving, the reward for bitcoin miners is divided in half. This happens about once every four years. But, to be precise, to be in the range of 210,000 transactieblokken. It takes about ten minutes to get a transactieblok to add it, so work it out for yourself!
That minerbeloning is a 12.5 bitcoins by processing transactieblok, but it will be in about two weeks, cut in half, to 6,25 bitcoins. This is a reward, it is at the same time, the inflow of new bitcoins to the market.
The bitcoin block halving and has therefore a direct impact on the number of bitcoin and therefore its price. For half of the inflow of new bitcoin, and the question remains the same? It has a very positive impact on the price.
Another issue is that miners are less than bitcoin to be able to sell it on the market, the verkoopdruk to take. Bitcoin miners sell them, often as a part of their bitcoinbeloning in order to have the energy to pay for it. The utility bill must be in u.s. dollars or in euros, to be paid for.
Earlier halveringen was a success
Bitcoin started in January 2009 with a minerbeloning of 50 bitcoins. That seems like a lot, but you have to take into account that in bitcoin then it is hardly good value for the price. At that point, you could, for example, have any pizza purchase to be Delivered by the cryptomunt. Bitcoin was mostly a collector’s item for enthusiasts.
The first half was, on the 28th of november, 2012, when the reward is halved to 25 bitcoins. At that time, you paid only $ 12 (11,06) for a single bitcoin. For more than a year later, the rate 9.604 percent to 1.165, the $ 1.073 million).
In the second, halving it was on the 9th of July, 2016, after which half were given to miners is still only a 12.5 bitcoins per transactieblok. Bitcoin rose, then, of $ 650 (€600) to 19.700, the $ 18.150 million), an increase of up to 2.936 per cent!
Often it reaches to the price, so about a year after the bitcoin block halving to a new high. Where will the bitcoin price go up after this halving? In order to answer this question, we look at the stock-to-flow model, of PlanB.
The stock-to-flow model as well as the price of bitcoin
PlanB is a quantitative analyst on a regular basis you will hear it on Twitter. His best-known work is the stock-to-flow model of the exchange rate of bitcoin. Stock-to-flow is a concept that is already in existence, but PlanB, it fits and for the first time, at the price of bitocin.
For assets such as gold and bitcoin gives the stock-to-flow is the number of years it will take for the current inventory period. That gives you a pretty good idea of how scarce a good is. Each of the four-year limit on the influx of new bitcoin, what is bitcoin is more and more scarce it makes. The stock-to-flow of a bitcoin doubles, then.
PlanB put the stock-to-flow for about the price of a single bitcoin, and discovered that there is a connection. In the last ten years, and was followed by the price of the bitcoin, the stock-to-flow.
Not quite exactly, by the way, when it comes to the price of top of the line, and sometimes below it. PlanB identifies itself to the metaphor of the drunk who walks his dog. The man’s wavering, sometimes, on the road, but it will, eventually, find the way home.
It remains for the model to stand? This is where we come in, a bitcoin price of $ 100,000 sometime in the next four years. That sounds a bit far-fetched, but it’s going to be an increase of about 1,200 percent when compared with the price of it now. Explain that in addition to the price of the last halvings (9.604% to 2.936%), then it sounds like it is actually not at all surprising. After each one, which is half the growth rate in terms of percentage, which is less.
The hype is real
You would think with all the attention to the corona virus, but also of the bitcoin block halving that is highly sought after. In fact, the hype around the bitcoin halving is greater now than in 2016.
Below, you can see how much there is to the halving search. The data is taken from Google, the company’s interest, on the basis of a consumer price index. A score of 0 means that there is no interest and the 100, with a peak in interest.
Four years ago, in the interest of the bitcoin halving for a month at the beginning. The surge in the number of search queries in the week of the 3rd of July with an index of 65.
Now, it is not like that. For a year or so for the bitcoin halving have begun to halving the search. The peak is still not reached, the previous week was a record being achieved. An index of 100 is the interest that the halving is higher than ever before.
Especially in Slovenia, there are a lot of searches for the halving, according to figures from Google. But here in the Netherlands is very much interested, even to be greater than that of the United States of america. It is eagerly looking forward to the next halving.
What do we expect in the next few weeks of the course?
The bitcoin block halving may be in the long-term impact on the share price. But what do we expect from the share price in the short term, for example, in the next few weeks? We are looking for both a positive (bullish) and a negative (bearish) scenario.
You are looking below, go to the bitcoinkoers in u.s. dollars) of march. with it right now. Every candle on the chart represents four hours.
Bullish
At this point, seems to be the price of resistance is to be found at 7,800, the $ 7.167 million), which is the red bar on the graph. At the beginning of march found the bitcoin, here is a support, before price of 3,800 us dollars (about 3,500 euros), nowhere to be found.
To succeed, the bitcoin to 7.800 dollar to break out? Then $ 8,000 (7.350 euros) in the image. This is equivalent to moving the average from the past 200 days. On the graph is the average shown by the green line, which we have extended with a dotted line. We expect that this will be a new element that can be used.
In the event that the share price even through it is broken, the price may increase to 8,500 us dollars (7.800 euros). That is, it is in the top green bar of the graph. It was at the end of February as a strong support.
Bearish
When bitcoin drops is 7,400 dollars (6.800 euro) in the first zone, and the orange bar on the graph. In the past few weeks, this level of service and support.
Dives in the course below the menu bar, and then it is $ 7,000 (6.435 euros), and after that, 6.600 usd (6.070 euro) in the image. Especially for the price, it is very interesting, in the whole of april, bitcoin is not yet at this level. Once again, you can 6.600 to be a strong support.
Two weeks to go before the bitcoin halving them. What do you think about the price, does it?