For a short time it looked as if the Bitcoin exchange rate can keep the 8,000 – $brand. Yesterday it came but yet again so very different.The Bitcoin exchange rate slipped yesterday again a good piece down and has lost the Support of 8,000$. But where this path leads us? Should it not go so slow but sure uphill? #BitcoinHalving2020In this article, we want to devote ourselves to both a bullish as well as bearish variant and light, as it is from here, more could go.Please note: None of this articles listed is to Formulate in any way the trading recommendations. This and the following article are solely for the exchange of information with our readership. Neither crypto Monday nor the author of this text shall be liable for any loss incurred as a result of the trading decisions of our readers. DYOR!
Contents
The technical analysis and their significance
The Bitcoin exchange rate is and will remain an unpredictable and exciting Thriller. If you think you have the Plot figured out, he takes a new turn. Therefore, I would not want to try today to predict a certain direction for the Bitcoin price, but to give views on a possible bullish and bearish variant that could be waiting for us from this point.Finally, the technical analysis is also not much more than a game with probabilities. It is not a supernatural ability, which leaves the chart analyst in the future, but merely a tool for this purpose, the probabilities against each other to estimate. Here, we use the same technique, as in all forecasts (e.g. the weather). We also draw on the data and patterns from the past and look at how often a particular behavior in the case of certain events repeatedly.So let’s start.
The bullish variant for the Bitcoin exchange rate
In my last Video on YouTube I have already referred to the possibility that we might have to do with a Formation called a Falling Wedge to. This Formation is considered to be bullish, why and how, I explain in Detail in the Video. If you like, you can do so here and now briefly look at before you go with the article. For all other I give in the following a short version of the explanation.
The Falling Wedge Formation is briefly explained
The Falling Wedge is one of the bullish formations, forming two downward converging trend lines. The price touches at least 5 Times, one of the two trend lines, while he forms the Formation of the following new lows.The Falling Wedge is not part of Patterns to be the best performers under the Chart. This means that it often attracts only a small price movement, and not to act is often profitable. There are, however, a variant of this Formation, which forms an exception, and those we were able to observe now with the Bitcoin price.
The Bitcoin exchange rate takes just a start-up?
According to Bulkowski, the only Variation of the Falling Wedges, which works well, those that breaks down in a bear market.
The falling wedge is a very poor performer as far as bullish chart patterns go. The break even failure rate is high and the average rise is low. The only variation that works well is a downward breakout in a bear market.
This is currently the case. The Falling Wedge on the Bitcoin Chart has reversed to down. As I stated in the Video based on the MACD, and stochastic RSI indicators, the overall Trend is a downward trend.To see clearly is that the Bitcoin exchange rate recorded by the lower black trend line has been found on the yesterday Support. A similar case, we were already at 23. Obtokber 2019, just before the famous China Pump the heart of the Bitcoin bulls has higher beat. As a result, the Bitcoin price of approximately 7.300 had risen to approx. of 10,300 USD.In consequence of a bullishes history of the Bitcoin exchange rate could be most of the resistance to re-ante, he has recently failed and the $ 14,000 mark to overcome.
The bearish variant for the Bitcoin exchange rate
As always, the coin has a downside, because anyone who is looking for a repeating pattern for a bearish variation that is definitely a find.We zoom in once to get out and look at the big picture, the following picture emerges for the history of the Bitcoin price.From the Bitcoin Price over the last few years a trend line on the Bitcoin exchange rate is repeatedly encountered is the result. In recent years, this has both as a resistance, as well as a line of support served.Currently, this line still serves as a Support, but the past clearly shows that every Time the Bitcoin price has been moving to this long-term trend line sooner or later it jumped to the other side.
What does this mean for the future course of Bitcoin?
Recently, the Bitcoin exchange rate is not possible, the resistance at almost 14,000 USD to break through. In consequence of which he has formed on the monthly Chart, a lower High, which is basically a lot of bids due soon Signal.The Bitcoin exchange rate should also lose the current Support through the long-term trend line, he could move very well possible in the direction of the 50 MA line. This is currently 4.522 USD, with a rising trend.We also consider the Price of the last Bitcoin Halvings, the a price target of around 4,500 USD for the Bitcoin exchange rate is not too crazy to appear.
Pattern of the past Halvings speak for a falling Bitcoin price
The Bitcoin Halving as a price driver for Bitcoin price. It is invoked often on the past price trends under the influence of the last two Halvings. What is left out, but often, is the following truth.The last two Bitcoin Halvings followed a similar course. The Bitcoin price was at the Event of the Bitcoin Halvings always well below the High of the relevant 4-year Episode between the individual Events.To illustrate this, let’s take a look at the following Chart.Here by the dashed vertical lines shown, we clearly see when exactly the last Halvings is likely and when to expect about the Bitcoin Halving in 2020. It comes with the last Halvings when the date of a negligible deviation of up to 3 days, due to the inaccuracy in the selected Time-Frame.We clearly see that the Bitcoin price has so far reached each Time before the Halvings of the lower edge of the Yope BTC tops Channel. This was in 2012 and 2016 is equally the case, while the respective highs mark the top edge of the Channel (in 2017).Should repeat this pattern, is waiting for us at the entrance of the Halvings of 2020, the Bitcoin rate of approximately 4.677 USD. This value could be the Position of the future 50 MA line on the monthly Chart reflect and support the above statement, that we approach this once again before it goes uphill
Critical Appraisal
If we can, of course, quite good of past behavior on future, the Whole with the right amount of skepticism.Point 1: The history of Bitcoin is relatively still very young. Accordingly, we do not have a battery amount of data rate in order to on this basis, to create meaningful forecasts for the future. However, they are everything we have available and therefore what we need to work on.Point 2: today We have very different conditions than it was in 2016, and 2012. The market has become more efficient and priced information much faster than it was a few years ago. In addition, market participants have a much easier access to resources, to shorten the Bitcoin exchange rate.Nevertheless, the Bitcoin exchange rate, in the end, is not driven by a ghostly hand but by people. Furthermore, a new flood could provide to uninformed participants in the market for a new asymmetry of information. So let us be surprised, what is the Bitcoin exchange rate has for exciting events and twists in Store for.
Position yourself to market in time
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