Bitcoin has experienced a few days ago, his first proper Difficulty adjustment according to the third Bitcoin Halving. Although, there was a Difficulty adjustment just 9 days after the Halving, but there are still blocks that have yet to be found before the Halving under a higher Hashrate. Therefore, many were of the opinion that we have the correct Miner capitulation is still to come. This would go hand-in-hand with a higher sell pressure from the miners and thus may be the Bitcoin exchange rate to drift down.
How did the Miner after the last adjustment? The Miner’s surrender is now off the table?
Bitcoin Miner surrender did not materialize
In order to make an assessment of how currently the Miner behavior and the impact it can have on the Bitcoin exchange rate, we draw on the best On-Chain data. Some companies have focused for years on the analysis of this data and regularly provide interesting information. The Blockchain analysis company crypto Quant.
According to the Miners‘ Position Index (MPI) is the Post-Halving Miner surrender for the time being, over. The MPI specifies whether Bitcoin miners sell their BTC or more to accumulate. The higher the MPI value, the more BTC will be sold by the miners, and vice versa. This is 98% of the Wallets will be observed all Miner and the outgoing transactions are measured.
On 10 may, a day before the Bitcoin Halving, rose the MPI value to its highest level in the last 5 months of -0,275. Almost 3 weeks later the value fell to -0,752. Meanwhile, the MPI is -0,495. This means that the last Difficulty adjustment has not led to a Miner’s surrender. Otherwise, the MPI would be value is currently much higher. Accordingly, the surrender took place, if at all, the day before the Halving and the Halving itself.
At this point, we must not forget that the majority of miners to professional companies. Therefore, the impact of Halvings to the private Business were calculated in advance as well as possible. Accordingly, the miners were able to estimate at an early stage, to operate if it continues to make sense Mining after the halving of the Block Rewards, or not.
Miners are currently in the accumulation phase
The data from the Miners‘ Position Index strengthened by a further Blockchain analysis company. The company Glassnode performs a similar Index and also observed the outputs of the various Miner Wallets and puts it into relation to the historical average. According to Glassnode Miner are currently in the accumulation phase.
The Miner Outflow Multiple is currently 0,613. This value was last achieved by the end of 2018, as the Bitcoin price dropped to about $ 3,000. At that time, miners have also started in a big way to accumulate Bitcoins. With the following BTC price increase in the first and the second quarter of 2019, the sales of the Miner increased, and continued the Bitcoin exchange rate is increasingly under pressure.
Miners have a huge impact on the available supply. You are forced to a certain part of their BTC earned from Mining, to sell on the market. To cover their ongoing costs and to further invest in Hardware and infrastructure.
Miner in the spell of the Bitcoin game theory
The On-Chain data currently show a bullishes image, but we should not leave the us currently. Because, ultimately, may change the behavior of the miners back in quickly, if the Bitcoin exchange rate ought to rise or fall. In addition, the hash rate for Bitcoin is increasing currently due to the last Difficulty adjustment again strong. The last two adjustments have lowered the Difficulty to about 15%. This probably has to start many of the miners motivated to do this again with the Mining. If the Trend should hold, then we can expect the next Difficulty adjustment, again with a higher Difficulty, which raises some Miner from the Mining Business. The game theoretical concept of Bitcoin works still excellent.
Through the accumulation phase, the Miner, the offer will be reduced greatly. On the other hand, we see companies such as Grayscale, increase your Position in BTC more, in order to serve the interests of the institutional investors. In addition, private investors are yet to be added, which is actually a falling Bitcoin price after the Halving have expected and again full of hope, are voted. The combination of the current conditions could lead to a rising price. There is no guarantee of course. We are excited to see how the Bitcoin price will behave and how the Miner it will react.
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(Image Source: Shutterstock, Crypto, Quantum, Glassnode)
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