On Wednesday it increased the bitcoin price suddenly, with a 15 per cent! The question remains, then, is always: did you have to be able to see it come to this? The answer is yes. But it has always been.
In this analysis, we also look at bitcoin and the energy. Can you use the price to predict the energy costs of bitcoin mining are to be used for?
Contents
Looking back: why did the bitcoin price?
But first, a look back. On the basis of a difference did you make the move up may be coming. In the majority of cases, this is a good sign of growth. Divergence means that the price lower and lower to decrease it makes. At the same time, indicators of a growing movement. In the chart below, we have used the RSI and MACD, as an example.
The bitcoin price action over the past week to do a little bit of thought to the end of October. And even then, it decreased the price and increased the value of the indicator. At the end of October, and flew bitcoin is like a rocket, and so is the price still didn’t come. But when you look at the RSI, the bitcoin price is still more than enough space to take off.
The RSI is still in the purple belt, and it is not yet overbought. Within a couple of days the bitcoin exchange rate so it is still a bit higher.
Bitcoin price will break trend line, we will have to look up
Wednesday’s womb, as the bitcoin price up. That is moving bitcoin from a key trend line to be broken. This is can be seen in the chart below.
Such an increase often goes hand in hand with reform, and that was the case this time. Bitcoin fell by five per cent, but the move is now back on its side. Also, it is good to see that the price find support on the trend line. This gives the course a strong foundation has been laid for further growth.
But the price is still in a downward channel
We need to be objective and unbiased, in the long term, the price still trapped between two falling trendlines. That name is also referred to as a channel.
Bitcoin makes a large upward movements, such as at the end of October and the last week. However, the soils of the course, each time a little lower. As long as the price is not out of the channel, breaks up and speak, we are still on a downward trend.
Truly bullish, it would have been if the bitcoin is a strong move up in the direction of 8.100 euros. That is, the upper end of the channel. Maybe it is a new year’s resolution for a single bitcoin will be in 2020 ?
Can you make the bitcoin price prediction with the cost of energy?
The price of bitcoin is not only the buyers and the sellers. Also, bitcoin miners can affect the price. On Tuesday, we wrote that the miners and the share price may be affected by the sale of bitcoin. Now, we are going to delve a little deeper into the fees that miners make.
Miners maintain the bitcoin network. Which gives the bitcoin security and safety. Do you want to be the bitcoin blockchain attack you, then you need to have more than one-half of the computational power of all computers on the network are in the hands of. And now it is next to impossible.
Computers and use electricity. Energy and cost a lot of money. This can be seen as the underlying value of the bitcoin. The value of bitcoin is based on nothing, but on the devices, and running.
Charles-Edwards, by Capriole Investments, came up with a way to get the value in dollars to express it. He refers to this as the energy value of a single bitcoin. Or, in other words, how many dollars does it cost on average to get a bitcoin is to mine?
He uses this formula:
We need to multiply the computing power of the network is in gigahashes), the energy needed (joules per gigahash).
Part of that is due to the growth in the demand of bitcoin.
Then, multiply that by the cost of energy in dollars per joule of energy.
The line below shows the relationship between the bitcoin price and relative energy value. The zero is the same as the energy value. And one hundred per cent, for example, have a bitcoin price and at least twice as high as the energy value.
What you will see is that the bitcoin price is in a bull market, the pieces, the higher is the energy value. After the race all the way back to the energy business.
What is also striking is that the bitcoin price is always below the energy value is. You will have to explain, as bitcoin miners will have only a short time with the loss of mine.
This chart describes the Resistance, since 2011, a pattern will emerge:
First of all, the price is lower than the energy value.
Bitcoin is soaring, but the increases will end when the price is 50% higher than the energy value (red circles).
Hereinafter referred to as dive of the course, once again, the energy value. That’s the real bottom, and then start the new bull market. According to Edwards, we are now at that stage.
Just two examples from the past, you don’t have much data with which to compare it. However, the graph shows you the new ideas about the bitcoin market. It’s time for a new bull market?
A small miningbedrijven turn a loss
Charles-Edwards coined the bitcoin cost of production. That is, the average cost to make a bitcoin is to mine.
He is responsible for not only electricity, but also of the average spending that is necessary to make a bitcoin miningbedrijf to keep it. There is no concrete evidence of that, so he uses an average of data of, among others, CoinShares and BitFury.
According to these data, the cost of a miningbedrijf for 60 per cent of the cost of energy. The remaining 40 per cent consists of other expenses. Consider, for example, insurance, interest rates, salary, personnel, and depreciation of equipment.
With this data, you get the following graph:
The bottom edge of the red band, and the “bare charge”. Or, the cost for bitcoin is to mine. The upper end of the band, and the total cost of all the other costs to be included.
To move the bitcoin price is in a band? Can bitcoin miningbedrijven even though the cost to pay for, but they need to cut back on other expenses.
Often, the larger miningbedrijven, such as Bitfury, however, to be a buffer for the loss, briefly, to be able to catch it. The apparatus is, for example, has already been bought, and the maintenance may be delayed. However, it should not last too long, because then you have these companies that some serious action is taken. Please consider the shutting down of the equipment, or discharge of employees.
But what do we have now? Let’s think of something to zoom in on the graph:
The bitcoin price is at the higher end of the band. Some of the smaller miningbedrijven rotate, so you may lose and have to cut back. The absolute bottom of the band is currently at 4.400 dollars, at least according to the following formula from the Resistance. In the area where bitcoin is now, may well serve as a bottom, because it doesn’t usually take long, and the price is in the band’s direction.
The articles are by Charles Edwards, are well worth the read! Would you take a look? You can register here: