PlanB is available in the entire Crypto Space for its Stock-to-Flow model is known, which has a Bitcoin price of $ 100,000 and $ 1,000,000 USD for the next few years and the BTC price in the past, very accurately modeled. No wonder, then, that his word has weight, and a lot of people sit up and take notice when he posts something on his Twitter Account.
That is exactly what he has done in the past few days again reinforced and hand predicts short gains in the Bitcoin price. According to his analysis, the Bitcoin price would have to be 18.000 USD, and it is hoped that the course will close the nearly $ 8,000 for large gap soon. We summarize his opinion on the current Bitcoin exchange rate.
Bitcoin is simply a more volatile S&P 500
2 great topics in the last weeks of solid reporting in the Crypto-Space: the correlation of BTC with the American stock index S&P 500 and the enormous Expansion of the Quantitative easing policy in the Wake of the corona of a crisis. These two topics declare take PlanB occasion of a Bitcoin price of 18,000 USD. But why?
While many have been waiting for in the last weeks and months on a decoupling of BTC with the S&P 500, it might be a certain amount of correlation according to the theory of PlanB not so bad. To do this, he says: the S&P 500 has performed in the last 8 years, a growth by a factor of 2.6 (from 1200 USD to 3100 USD), while the Bitcoin price has multiplied by the factor of 1900 (from 5 USD to 9500 USD).
The parent can speak of a certain degree of correlation. It will be interesting, considering how the Quantitative easing of Central banks pumping in the world markets from the crisis. By the correlation to the S&P 500 the helps so, indirectly, the Bitcoin exchange rate. As PlanB says:
A brief history on the topic of #bitcoin – correlation to the stock market. The S&p 500 generated a 2.6 x ($1200 -> $3100), BTC 1900x ($5 -> $9500). Bitcoin looks like a stock with a high beta value. Trillions and trillions of QE money from the Central banks to boost the stock markets around the world, seem on Bitcoin to drop!
Short story on #bitcoin – stock market correlation. S&P500 did 2.6 x ($1200 -> $3100), BTC 1900x ($5 -> $9500). Bitcoin looks like a high beta stock. Trillions and trillion of central bank QE money, that boost stock markets around the world, seem to be dripping down to bitcoin! ? pic.twitter.com/FNqfwKkoTI
— PlanB ? (@100trillionUSD) June 16, 2020
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Bitcoin exchange rate of 18,000 USD?
In a comment of the other Posts, is PlanB even a step further and writes a little bit flat, that the history of the Bitcoin exchange rate look a little like a Position on the S&P 500 with a leverage of 416x and a Stop Loss at -99%. This statement neglects, of course, aware of the dimensions of all fundamental properties that make BTC a special and unique Asset.
Due to the correlation to the S&P 500, sees PlanB a possible Bitcoin exchange rate of 18,000 USD, or a decline in the S&P 500, so the balance of the kointegrierten correlation is restored. From his following statement is, however, not clear whether he sees the BTC price is currently at 18,000 USD, or only for a certain time in the future.
Current S&P level implies BTC $18K (or S&P falls)
– #Bitcoin and S&P500 are correlated (95% R2) and cointegrated (so probably not spurious)
– Current S&P level implies BTC $18K (or S&P to go down)
– This is consistent with S2FX model: $288K BTC at S2F56 -> it implies $4300 S&P
– Money printing (QE) pumps both S&P and BTC? pic.twitter.com/0iW8WpEpt1
— PlanB ? (@100trillionUSD) June 17, 2020
While the FED has only announced a few days ago, to expand its emergency program to buy corporate bonds, there is no end to the policy of Quantitative easing in sight. Well, according to PlanB for the long term, therefore, also for the Bitcoin exchange rate.
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