According to estimates, Bitcoin will experience approximately 30 days of its next block reward reduction – the so-called “halving” of the number of per Block issued Coins from 12.5 to 6.25 is halved.
Although half of the coats are traditionally considered as an extremely positive event for the Bitcoin market, has been the collapse of the crypto-currency in the last few months, from a macro perspective, where BTC has been traded since the low in December at 6,400 US dollars, only around six per cent higher.
And as a result, the crypto-currency is heading on this chart from a technical point of view, such a weak event. But this should be a cause for concern for bulls?
The Macro-RSI of Bitcoin paints a harrowing picture
If you traded an asset or Bloomberg have read, do you know probably the indicator of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – a measure of whether an asset is overbought or oversold, determined by the strength of Trends.
According to the PlanB – the prominent, pseudonymous crypto-Trader – A was the-month RSI for Bitcoin “never been so weak” shortly before the halving, which is now only a month. In fact, the RSI is below 50, what tends in the direction of the “oversold”, while he coats before the previous Half-almost 60 or slightly “overbought”.
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Not only PlanB commented on the weakness of the RSI of Bitcoin.
Crypto-Trader Eric Thies writes on 11. Of April, bitcoin, the “Macro-RSI (time) is the framework of an overall decline, which suggests an imminent decline after a recent potential increase in the coming week close”.
In support of this prediction, he points to the fact that Bitcoin has recovered to slightly more than 100 percent from all-time low at $3,700 to the local highs of $7.470, however, it is not managed, the trend of strength to press the indicator RSI about the historical resistance levels. This suggests an imminent return to the downward trend.
The S2F model of PlanB and other bullish catalysts remain intact
While the above-mentioned RSI-value can be without context, as the decline is regarded, is the medium – to long-term bull case for Bitcoin invalidated anything other than, say analysts.
First of all, the RSI is approaching on a monthly point of view, a low point marked in the past, in the case of Bitcoin, the beginning of the bull’s movements. In fact, this indicator reached in front of the exponential Upward trend of 2012, 2015 and 2019, with values that were as low as now – just to get then an explosion to the top.
And secondly, the recent weakness does not distort the Stock-to-Flow-model, of PlanB. Since it predicts that the fair price of BTC will rise after the halving in may in the direction of USD 50,000 and USD 100,000.
Data from “Clark Moody’s Bitcoin Dashboard” saying that the crypto-currency only 13 percent, the Stock-to-Flow-model predicted price is traded, which is well within the error limits.
Not to mention the fact that the Stock-to-Flow model has been recently verified by a statistics expert with the help of certain methods of analysis. They write about their statistical experiments:
“You all can’t reject the hypothesis that Stock-to-Flow is an important, not a false predictor for the value of Bitcoin. (…) We can see that Stock-to-Flow has a significant long-term impact on the price.“
All of this taken together would indicate that crypto-currencies could decrease in the short term tends to be the case for long-term appreciation remain intact.