The last days were for the Bitcoin market explosive. After a decline of 4.5 percent from the local highs at 11,500 $ BTC has risen in the last seven days 17,86 percent.
Some analysts speak of a sustained rally, however, critical.
A Trader commented, for example, that the financing rate in the markets for Perpetual Futures market of Bitcoin is far in the positive range. A high refinancing rate suggests that Long positions could excessively be foreign financed, and thus Shorts offer the opportunity to lower the price of BTC.
The financing rate is the rate to pay for the Long positions, Short positions, to normalize the price of the Futures contract on the price of the underlying asset.
However, after an in-depth analysis of the derivatives by Alex Kruger, an Economist and market commentator with crypto-focused, Bitcoin is in a historical comparison, far from a market leader.
To derivatives data analysis: Bitcoin is not yet at the top
According to the historical data to Bitcoin-derivatives of Skew, a crypto-derivatives-Tracker/Portal, is BTC still in the early stages of a Bull trend.
Kruger explained that exactly to the data of the all-time highs in June 2019 and February 2020, the annualized three-month basis on BitMEX and Deribit temporarily, about 23 percent.
“The highs from June of 2019 and February 2020, occurred as the 3-month base on Bitmex (and) Deribit >reached 23%… The arrows mark the exact time that exceeded the basic threshold values, both of which stand only a few minutes from the peak (or maximum) and minutes away from a major correction.”
Skew-Chart of the Bitcoin Futures on an annualised 3-month Basis
Currently, the futures market of BitMEX is the three-month base for the Bitcoin-only 12 percent.
Although this is by no means low, this is a level that is observed in the early-to-middle Phase of the historical crypto-Bull-Trends.
This is not to say that Bitcoin will recover – but if this is the case, he can rise sustainably far over 11,500 dollars.
Fundamentals point to a further increase in
According to Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, a fundamentals point to the fact that Bitcoin is soon set to rise further.
In an interview with CNBC, former Partner of Goldman Sachs commented on how the Federal Reserve will increase the liquidity and, hence, Bitcoin and Gold will help:
“Great bubbles usually end with political steps. It looks as if the Fed would raise interest rates …, liquidity, history will not disappear. We will receive a great Stimulus.“
In the same Interview, Novogratz added that Bitcoin could reach in the coming months, with $ 14,000 and then to 20,000 dollars by the end of the year.