Many expect Bitcoin to rise before the halving in may. In the past, however, this was not the case, and various data sound a note of caution.
Crash or rise – what is the halving brings?
The halving of Bitcoin every four years is often considered the most optimistic event for the leading crypto-currency. The inflation rate decreases to about 1.8%, because the rewards will be halved for Mining.
In Essence, the entire BTC supply is made scarce, which has led in the past to price increases.
Although the event is very exciting and a lot of increase in the price to may be expected, this was not the case in the past. In fact, Bitcoin has experienced its best performance in the rule, only after the halving – and not before.
Joseph Young (@iamjosephyoung) explains, the Miner with a strong incentive to sell a considerable amount of BTC before the halving. The Miner will be producing after the halving less BTC, so you probably want to sell before the halving, in order to secure their profits.
The Mining company is not to be gambled away their BTC after the halving, probably in the hope for a balanced result. From the Miner point of view, it is therefore far safer to sell before the halving.
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This opinion seems to be due to historical Trends. As RA Capital (@rektcapital) writes, tends a Bitcoin “before the halving to go back, before he recovers to half exponential”.
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Others seem to laugh at the insinuation that the former apply half coats of Bitcoin as “historical data”. So far, Bitcoin has not made a total of two and a half coats which is not enough to draw a historical picture.
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In addition, it came to these two previous Reductions, as Bitcoin has been in comparison to today, only a tiny fraction of the market capitalization. In view of the considerable interest of the small investor is not sure that the upcoming will half-be such as the previous two events.
In addition, we now have other models, according to which we, the volatility can be assessed.
It is clear that the upcoming distinguishes halving of the previous one. Nevertheless, the market cycles of Bitcoin continues to be a similar pattern.
Therefore, it is likely that some of the things the last four cycles repeat. If you are looking for in case of doubt, to the Point where the halving will result – in view of the fact that the Miner must also remain in the profit zone, it is likely that it will come before the long-awaited halving in may to a sell-out.
Notwithstanding these differences, all analysts seem to agree on one point: After the halving, the Bitcoin holders will be to achieve the greatest gains.