New Bitcoin exchange rate model predicts 100,000 USD without Stock-to-Flow

Bitcoin exchange rate models have in the Crypto-Space has a special relevance and ensure on a regular basis for heated discussions. Probably the best known of which is the Stock-to-Flow model (S2F) of PlanB, which says a BTC price of 100,000 USD for the next few years. Despite the statistical accuracy of the S2F model, there are also points of criticism. One of them is that the model focuses only on the supply-side and demand-is, in addition to Eight.

While some see this criticism as a more or less justified, since the 11. June is a new Bitcoin exchange rate model of the round. This focuses, in contrast to S2F, only on the demand-side by looking at the development of the Adoption of new technologies. Interestingly, this predicts, indirectly, also a tenfold increase in the price per “Halving Era”, which is already said by S2F advance. We summarize the approach of the new model for you in this article.

Bitcoin exchange rate model and the Adoption of new technologies

Many see the S2F model of PlanB rather critical, although it has modeled the Bitcoin exchange rate well in the past. Reason for this is that the price increases most strongly occur. Almost too good to be true. While the predicted rates are seen objectively, is actually very bullish, shows a new analysis of Twitter active “Croesus” that these explosive increases are in spite of the rising market capitalization continue to be possible.

The reason is the normal course of the Adoption of new technologies and innovations. Summarized is BTC under this point of view, namely, in spite of its relatively large market capitalization at the beginning of the innovation curve. Since Bitcoin is “just” a new technology such as the Internet, the telephone or a smartphone, one can assume that the Adoption of this technology could take a similar course. This would give the Bitcoin price is still tremendous further Potential and the S2F model support.

According to the Textbook, the Adoption of innovations, such as a bell, when there are 2.5% innovators, 13.5% of early users, 34% of early and late majority and 16% Laggards runs.

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BTC market is penetrated only 0.5%?

In order to determine where Bitcoin when the topic of Adoption is ever exactly meets Croesus, some of the assumptions that are questionable, but necessary in order to reach a final statement as to where the Bitcoin price still can go to:

Bitcoin has as a Store of Value is a potential market of 2.2 billion people (people with savings > = $ 10,000 USD)currently, there are nearly 10 million people who have invested in BTC $ 1,000 USD or more

These assumptions lead to the conclusion that the market of potential BTC is imbued with investors just a 0.5% and there is still enormous Potential in terms of new users, the purchase of which could be driving the Bitcoin price up. Demonstrates the enormous Potential of Adoption is very good in the following pictures.

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Bitcoin exchange rate to USD 100,000?

But what is it exactly for the Bitcoin exchange rate? Croesus makes, unfortunately, no exact statement about a certain price at a certain time. The conclusion of his analysis is by no means uninteresting.

While the newly issued BTC with each of the 4-year Halving-fall Era massively, at the same time increases the number of new users always fast-paced. This More demand and Less supply, of course, increases the rarity of the Asset and would have to leave the Bitcoin exchange rate, in theory, continue to rise massively.

According to Croesus the “adoption adjusted scarcity” of Bitcoin increases, each time Halving the factor of 10 because the newly issued Coins per cumulative users decreases on the average by a factor of 10.

Also, if the assumptions in the analysis of Croesus somewhat questionable, is the derivation of the new model is very understandable and historically, through the normal course of Adoption of innovation. For example, he writes:

This rough Exercise is by no means precise. It should only be taken into account, such as the adoption of the bell curve rewards the exponential decay of the Block is reinforced. The result shows a ~10-fold increase in the “adjusted scarcity” per Belohnungsära, similar to how we see it in the S2F project ion.

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