U.s. stocks and bonds reached new highs. This ‘melt-up’, there are hardly any eye out for geo-political tensions, such as Iran, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, or in the bickering between the Home and environment. In december, the fourth, the bullrun will be ten years old.
But, everything that rises, at any given time, to decline. Is there? How much longer can this go on?The blue line is the stock price, and that starts with the last financial crisis. The yellow line in the balance sheet of the Us central bank (the FEDERAL reserve). This balance is growing during the QE process in an exponential manner. For more information about OE can be found here.
Contents
Is not the ultimate evil
It is difficult to find a single, systemic cause for the next big fix to be found. Because in the end it was what the newspapers are selling, an obvious bad guy. Instead it lurks there, just below the surface, and that is not a black-and-white terms that can be captured: a lot of cheap money. All that easy money, is looking for a destination, and that is, sometimes literally, in the form of houses. The money will go towards all of the different types of asset classes, driven by the desperate search by investors for yield.
It’s not a black-and-white, because we won’t be able to control it, don’t understand it, there is no historical precedent for this, and we will also benefit from it. There is plenty of work to do, and the interest rates on your loans will be very low.
The money goes to the open market
In the context of historically low interest rates have meant that corporate debt has risen by 50% since 2008. All of these loans will be funded by insurance companies, pension funds and other institutional investors who are forced to put their money in the private markets to invest in. The rate of return on bonds is so low that they are such an investment will no longer be able to justify it to their customers.
It is a simple consequence of this is that it is a very inexpensive way for businesses to get out of debt. Companies will be able to reduce their growth financing, and there is a small rate of interest is in front of you. That is what it feels like for a vliegwieleffect, a large publicly-listed companies to use cheap borrowed money for buybacks (repurchase of own stocks/bonds, etc.) to the market price of its shares more of the economy.
The risk is that the risk is growing all the time. The interest rate rises, there are thousands of companies in the basket, which is to live on borrowed money. These companies would be able to have healthy businesses that with to track.
The central bank does not have
Due to the financial crisis of 2007 and we will all be on the alert for clues in the economy, which would be an indication of a sea change. The crisis has left us forever changed.
However, the economy shows no signs of overheating to see it. Yes, this is the longest bull market in history. Even Jerome Powell to the Fed, says: “There is no bubble that can be burst…,” The Federal reserve and other major central banks that seem to be of the inflation is also under control. The global low level of unemployment has failed to ensure that the wage levels have increased (on the contrary).
However, a crisis is inevitable. And if we have something to learn from 2007 is that it’s a good idea to be hedged, in order to be a big short to come. At the time, were intelligent investor the big short on the deemed safe of CDOS. Here are the bundles as collateral for mortgages.
The world has gone mad, and we have found a way to escape the need
Ray Dalio, of Bridgewater, warned us on LinkedIn for all of that free money. He wrote an article called, ” The World Has Gone Mad and the System Is Broken.
And he seems to be in the action to the word, to join them. There were rumours that his fund (which is the world’s largest hedge fund, at the end of 2019 at the latest, complex structures, have been entered into, to which he alludes in a crash in march that the global capital markets. Here, he has no less than one and one-half billion dollars, to be used with. He is also due to the large amounts of gold, too.
However, not everyone has the connections, knowledge, and your wallet, in order to be covered by insurance for a very long time. What we do have is a bitcoin. The decentralisation of the assetklasse, who was born during the last crisis, and as a weapon against the great force of the bank.