The commonly held view that after a bitcoin halving in the year 2020, a massive Bull-Run consequences, is not necessarily correct, according to a new study.
The Blockchain-research company Messari’s investigation has found: The Bitcoin Ecosystem is constantly evolving – and it may not be a good idea, the impact of the next halving solely on the basis of the last two to predict.
What impact will bitcoin halving?
The Trends of the past, according to Bitcoin wins in the rule of twelve months prior to the halving, and in the following year in upward momentum. The optimistic BTC advocates naturally assume that the relative success of the asset has been voted in the year 2019 in perfectly with this Trend.
In spite of all the setbacks, Bitcoin counts as a raw material with the best Performance in the year 2019. Many traders and analysts believe that it is very likely or almost certain that Bitcoin to or shortly after the next halving will occur in a new bullish Phase.
According to the Messari study, however, there is no fundamental reason why BTC after any halving – and this is also true for the next – in the height should be fast. The study notes that the Argument of the “high Stock-to-Flow ratio” – the fundamental logical construct that is often used to be a link between the halving of the Bitcoin 2020 and the next big Bull to produce Run – of wrong.
High S2F does not guarantee a Bull Run after the halving
For the Uninitiated, The Stock-to-Flow ratio (S2F) of a product is a metric that compares the total volume in the stock in relation to the annual offer.
Bitcoin, just like Gold, due to its Scarcity-driven model to a very high S2F-rate. It is expected that BTC will be by 2025, the raw material with the highest S2F-rate, since the block rewards at the end of each halving to 50% decrease.
The Co-authors of the Messari-study are not convinced, however, that the high S2F-rate means much for the future BTC price. Since Bitcoin is a fixed commodity, it qualifies in your opinion as a “perfectly inelastic Good”.
They argue that the miners are never in the position to control the net supply of Bitcoin is independent of the market demand or Lack thereof. The study also claimed that the only factor that can lead to the next Bitcoin Bull-Run, an increase in the demand and not the previously established 50%reduction in block rewards.